Sunday, September 21, 2008

Sepinwall on TV: Handicapping the Emmys

In today's column, I make my usual misguided attempt to predict who will win the Emmys, along with saying who I want to see win.

Feel free to use this post to discuss the show and the awards as they go along. I'll drop in to kibbitz when I have time during the telecast, but my primary focus is to get two different columns (one for the early edition, one for all the others) done for tomorrow's paper. I should have the final version posted by around 11:30 tonight.

124 comments:

  1. I'm only going to say this once: Michael Emerson should win. Period. No discussion needed. He is AMAZING to watch on LOST. I just recently watched all 4 seasons in less than three weeks and to say I LOVE the show is not even beginning to describe how much i'm into it. I'd love it to pick up the Best Drama award, but I just feel like MAD MEN had one of those perfect first seasons that few shows get. NO matter what, surely the Hammster is a lock, right, Alan?

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  2. Is it possible to give an anti-Emmy to last night's SNL episode? It was a black hole of suck from which no funny could escape. Miserable. Burn the joint.

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  3. Not to nitpick, but didn't 30 Rock have 17 nominations to Mad Men's 16?

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  4. I can't speak to who _will_ win, but as to who _should_:

    -I agree with all the Mad Men and 30 Rock love.
    -I think The Amazing Race is still much more entertaining and insightful than Project Runway.
    -I like Seacrest, but he's a little bland. Probst is a little smarmy and intrusive for my taste. I find Tom Bergeron smart and funny. I think Bergeron should win.

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  5. "Cranston (who was never even nominated for his hysterical work on "Malcolm in the Middle")"

    he was nominated three times

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  6. he was nominated three times

    Can I hire you as my fact-checker? I seem to have fallen down on the job.

    I can pay you in cookies.

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  7. Two words. Mad Sweep.

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  8. Although I want Mad Men to take it all, I won't be surprised if James Spader or Boston Legal steals a win. I have no faith in those Emmy voters but I do hope to be proved wrong.


    I also want Alec Baldwin to win his category. He pulled it off last year as well, and more than deserves it. And for the sake of great comedy, I want Don Rickles to pull the win over Colbert. It's ridiculous that he's even in the same category as the rest of the guys who host a daily show, and continues to outline the idiocy of the non main categories.

    I think Bergeron will come off as the best host and deserves the Emmy, not because Dancing with the Stars is a great show, but because he's the one who works live and off the cuff more than any other of the nominated hosts. Heidi Klum's hosting abilities including repeating the same lines over and over again, which is a joke. Probst is a close second in terms of repeating the same thing over and over again, but does have some leeway on Tribal Council.

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  9. Here's my picks for the major categories:

    Best Drama: Mad Men
    Best Actor Drama: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
    Best Actress Drama: Glenn Close, Damages

    Best Comedy: 30 Rock
    Best Actor Comedy: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
    Best Actress Comedy: Tina Fey, 30 Rock

    Best Mini-Series: John Adams
    Best Actor Mini-Series: Paul Giamatti, John Adams
    Best Actress Mini-Series: Laura Linney, John Adam

    Best Made for TV Movie: Recount

    Supporting Actor Comedy: Jeremy Piven, Entourage
    Supporting Actress Comedy: Jean Smart, Samantha Who

    Supporting Actor Drama: John Slattery, Mad Men
    Supporting Actress Drama: Rachel Griffiths, Brothers and Sisters

    Supporting Actor Mini-Series: Tom Wilkinson, John Adams
    Supporting Actress Mini-Series: Laura Dern, Recount

    Writing Drama: Mad Men, "The Wheel"
    Writing Comedy: 30 Rock, "Cooter"

    I wonder how wrong I'll be?

    My personal picks would be vastly different.

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  10. The Emmys have basically been illegitimate ever since they started ignoring The Wire and completely lost me when they didn't give one to Gregory Itzin in 2006. I fully expect them to not give one to Emerson tonight.

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  11. Re: Glenn Close, she is a great actress. I am tempted to add an "of course" to that sentence. But in the case of _Damages_, (a) I didn't find the series itself to be entertaining or well-made enough to warrant Emmy consideration for the people involved--particularly with such a dull performance from Rose Byrne, whose character was supposed to be intelligent; and (b) I'm rather inclined to say that even Ms. Close herself didn't really _do_ that much. (I suppose someone could argue that the lack of showiness is a virtue or something, but I'm not getting that kind of vibe in this case.) But I also wouldn't know who to give the Emmy to if not to Ms. Close.

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  12. The winner of the Reality or Reality-Competition Host category should be Phil Keoghan, if for no other reason than he effectively has to run the race along with the competitors and stay ahead of them (and he's just as good as Probst). Inexplicably however he was not nominated.

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  13. The thing with both Close and "Damages" is that while the middle part of the season was more than a bit of a mess (the bizarre "Patty's son goes crazy" plotline, for instance), the pilot and conclusion are both really really good, and judging on individual episodes? Also, Danson and Ivanek were great through the whole season.

    And the Spader episode submission was perfect awards bait--a well-performed monologue that's also politicially fashionable? Cha-ching!

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  14. THose I dislike , in general, reality shows, Kat Deeley from SYTYCD is the best reason to watch the show. How could she not have been nominated in the host category.

    I'm still bitter about the snub, once again,of BSG and it's cast, particularly leading lady Mary McDonnell.

    Im surprised that a show with the wit and style of MAD MEN even caught the eye of Emmy. If Mad Men wins, Emmy MAY gain a bit of crediblity again. Maybe.

    Debbie

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  15. Off topic but Alan, I would love to hear what you think of today's NY Times article about the current state of the sitcom.

    They argue that with Reality Shows pushing the envelope so much in terms of how willing they are to embarrass their contestants, it's left sitcoms without a place to play that traditional role (in the past embarrassing their characters has been a big source of humor, but now it's harder to do as reality shows have taken it to such an extreme.)

    What's your take?

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  16. There only seem to be three hosts talking.. hope it's a bit.

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  17. Piven again... couldn't they even try to watch the other shows?

    I sense Spader will win his category.

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  18. Probst's tux didn't come with a tie??

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  19. Piven was barely even in "Entourage" last year. Sigh...

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  20. I'm disappointed with the first two picks so far. But, then again, I'm pretty consistently disappointed with the Emmys anyhow, so its living up to expectations.

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  21. It doesn't start well... Congratulations to Boston Legal people!

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  22. OK - It's already a joke. Jean Smart? Really?

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  23. The audience seemed a bit quiet when Jean Smart won.. is she unpopular?
    Not thrilled with her win either, when Amy Poehler showed in 3 minutes why she should have won.

    And Josh Groban singing 30 songs? Is this the Bizarro Emmys?

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  24. Never underestimate both the narcissism of Hollywood when it comes to honoring work about Hollywood (Piven) or the number of voters of a certain age who like to honor peers who are still out there working (Jean Smart).

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  25. Probably the last guy I would have expected in this category, but people who watched Damages all the way to the end insist he was brilliant.

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  26. Wow - unexpected and yet still a worthy win. Yay Zelko!

    Gervais/Carrel - best moment so far.

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  27. Well, I'm 0 and 3. But that Ivanek guy is a bonafide HiTG, so that's cool

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  28. Ricky Gervais? Genius. Steve Carell? Even funnier just keeping a straight face.

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  29. For once the "comedy" was funny with Gervais.. more of that and less of the boring host banter.

    Stewart and Colbert didn't even bother keeping a straight face so it must have been hard for Carell to keep it straight.

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  30. Piven shouldn't have won; I thought Kevin Dillon actually brought a few welcome human moments to Drama last year and should have won it.

    That said, at least Piven took a shot at the unfunny rotating host format.

    Also, kudos to Zeljko Ivanek. I never saw Damages, but he's been turning in solid work for almost 20 years.

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  31. I have a feeling we have seen the funniest part of tonight.

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  32. Dianne Wiest was awesome on "In Treatment."

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  33. God, even SNL's writer intro was lame and boring. Yay, Colbert Report.

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  34. The Miis were great, but overall, those clips disappointed.

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  35. Glad for Dianne Wiest and even moreso for the Colbert Report, which has been funnier than the Daily Show more often than not.

    And Carell already has another Emmy...

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  36. No one's ever tried to top Da Ali G Show writers submitting stills from gay porno. Shame...

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  37. So far as line of the night goes, it'll be hard to beat Gervais's "Look at his stupid face."

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  38. This Groban bit cannot end fast enough. Was Baywatch nominated for Emmys? I don't even get why it was included.

    All this shows is that there are few good theme songs in today's current shows.

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  39. I dunno. It's going on forever, but Groban deserves some props for both the versatility and his willingness to look like a complete fool (South Park, Fresh Prince).

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  40. Did he really just say Lauren Conrad? Ugh.

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  41. Hooray Laura Linney! Yeah, I know, not a surprise, still good. Nice speech too.

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  42. I didn't watch the Smothers Brothers, but I was wondering if there is a show on network television at the present time that is as political as it was back in its day. I can only think of when Politically Incorrect, but that was cancelled not long after 9/11.

    And all awards to the John Adams mini-series are well deserved. Laura Linney was great, and I hope Paul Giamatti gets one too. It was nice to learn something and be entertained.

    And this is the second secret political reference tonight...

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  43. The Guest Actor categories should be renamed to "Best Guest Actor in a 30 Rock episode"

    And could David Boreanaz be any more awkward around that chick from the Hills. (Why is she there?)

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  44. Martin Sheen! That's it, I'm breaking out the West Wing DVDs at the first possible moment...

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  45. Thank God it's so boring right now. I'm almost up to the deadline for the early-edition story.

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  46. God, I hate prunes.

    However, I do love me some Stewart/Colbert.

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  47. Do we really need all the, "Go vote!" comments? At least when actors give political rants, it is interesting.

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  48. Cutting off praise for articulating thoughts in complete sentences for a plug about best reality show competition?

    For shame, Emmys, for shame.

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  49. The "go vote" stuff is clearly the "try and be non-partisan" direction that was given. I mean, I'm just impressed that Martin Sheen managed not to crack up while saying that the West Wing was "non-partisan."

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  50. Cranford was really good, I swear.
    The prune joke was the best bit after the Gervais bit, which I rewatched on Youtube because the show was that boring.

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  51. Seems like they just censored Kirk Ellis (John Adams) acceptance speech:

    "...this amazing opportunity to talk about a period in our history when articulate men articulated complex thoughts in complete sentences. They used words..."

    Cut to commercial - what the hell???

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  52. Don Rickles for Emmy host!
    Ricky Gervais for Emmy host!
    Anyone but the reality people for Emmy host!

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  53. What Austin said. A shame to cut the first non-sanitized speech with reality crap.

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  54. austin: It's possible that was just a cueing error. He paused long enough that I thought he was finished too. The irony of his next few words was admittedly interesting.

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  55. I second the vote for Rickles as host, making the predictable TAR win a little funny.

    It's painful otherwise.

    Mad Men put on a rerun for this?

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  56. Yay for The Amazing Race winning, but how does that win and Phil not be nominated for host?

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  57. Boy I would rather be watching a new episode of Mad Men right now than this load of self congratulatory yap.

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  58. Tina: I realized that after a few minutes. It still was an unfortunate coincidence.

    Holy crap! I can't believe that Andromeda Strain was even nominated. That show was utter crap.

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  59. That Rickles bit was surreal, watching him go back and forth between his own funny jokes and the terrible pre-written jokes. I concur with the Rickles for Emmy host sentiment.

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  60. I can't believe that Andromeda Strain was even nominated.

    Almost nobody makes miniseries anymore. They needed something to fill out the category.

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  61. Wow. Did I really just see the High School Musical 3 cast shilling for bread?!

    Weird. The boys of Mad Men would have a field day with that one.

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  62. This show is grim. Why is Tom Hanks wearing my grandmother's glasses?

    I fear that Man Men is going to get hosed tonight. If that freaking James Spader walks off with the Emmy, I'm gonna have a cow. I could live with Gabriel Bryne winning, or Michael C. Hall but not Spader.

    How is this show so incredibaly awful? I don't understand it's so hard to make a decent awards show?? The hosts are deadly....I love PR but it's clear that Heidi Klum should never ever do live TV...no one in charge saw that before the show went on the air?

    Gervais should have hosted the whole night. Or maybe NPH (who rules).

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  63. Ugh. I was enjoying Rickles until he wouldn't shut up and the TAR people didn't even get to say thank you. I know they've won a million of 'em and probably wouldn't have much new to say, but still: shut up, Don Rickles. (Kathy Griffin hollering "GET UUUP!") was funny, though.

    I can't believe they tried to play off Tom Hanks, either. Being Mayor of Hollywood doesn't carry much weight anymore.

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  64. NPH talking trash about Howie Mandel! Everyone in the room hates the hosts.

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  65. Oh, I can't wait for Tuesday's Colbert Report where he rips Don Rickles a new one.

    Is it too early to call Colbert the new Lucci?

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  66. That was a pretty good episode of "House," but that's not a good sign at all for "Mad Men."

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  67. I'm so happy Glynn Turman got the Emmy!

    I wasn't surprised Rickles got the win, and it will surely lead to Colbert funniness.

    I also loved the juxtaposition of how Rickles never won anything but an ashtray and then the shot to Piven, the director subtly indicating someone who has undeservedly won too many too soon. It seems everyone on this show is funnier than the Emmy writers and hosts.

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  68. I'm telling you, "Mad Men" is going to get hosed...look for "House" to rob them of best drama series.

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  69. "The Wheel" was better than the pilot, but I'll take it.

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  70. I'm am getting a bad feeling about this. I think Weiner getting the writing award was akin to when the Oscars give the writing award to the quirky film but it doesn't get anything else.

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  71. Keep in mind, guys, that Mad Men has only been up for three awards so far tonight, won one, and lost the other two to people who are decidedly not the usual suspects. '

    I'm still bracing myself for Spader's fourth win, etc., but it's not like Mad Men has been losing left and right this evening, and it already had four wins at the Creative Arts ceremony.

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  72. Well there's a win for Mad Men, hooray. Although to see BSG and of course The Wire lose out is sad. One hopes against hope that The Wire will see justice triumph and then....well, life imitates the show at times...

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  73. I wonder if House won because the Mad Men vote was split between the two episodes..?

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  74. Sorry... Brain fart on my last comment

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  75. Enough with the political speeches by the winners -- they're preaching to the choir. Take a cue from Linney and Giamatti and go for a well-crafted dig -- not a stump speech.

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  76. At least somebody from the Wire got to be on that stage!

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  77. YES!

    "They got me! Da honkies shot me!"

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  78. Hooray Baldwin! Hooray 30 Rock!

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  79. Most predictable award of the night.

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  80. Glad to read these comments and see people are having the same reactions I am. The hosts and the writing are terrible. I loved Rickles, Gervais/Carrell, Stewart/Colbert, Pohler/Fey, and the incomparable Steve Martin. I still have hope for Mad Men, but I am just ticked that Michael Emerson, and LOST in general, are not getting the recognition they deserve.

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  81. Seconding the hooray! And hearing Elaine May name-checked in Baldwin's speech (and Fey's obvious pride at the compliment) gives you hope for comedy.

    Nice to see Glenn Close win, and to pronounce Zeljko Ivanek's name right!

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  82. I'm happy that Baldwin and Close won. Surprised that Baldwin didn't throw in a political comment though.

    I am tired of the playing out of people that I want to hear when I was forced to listen to a painfully boring intro.

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  83. I also liked Candice Bergen's comment, so I guess I can forgive her being on Boston Legal. For the moment.

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  84. I really liked the Carlin bookends in the "In Memoriam" montage.

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  85. I am happy for all the "John Adams" wins, which was one of the most well-done artistic offerings I've seen in years. And I just watched "Recount" today and it was pretty good, though it made me angry remembering 2000.

    Bryan Cranston??? That's a shock!

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  86. HOLY BLEEPING BLEEP!

    I never in a million years expected it, but totally deserved, even if Hamm and Laurie have to wait at least another year.

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  88. Whoops, guess I should have bleeped myself ...

    Holy. Bleep. That's incredible.

    Also, is it just me or did they ditch the hosts?

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  89. Good for Cranston, even if he isn't in Jon Hamm's league. (To be fair, nobody else on TV is)

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  90. Hooray Tina! If 30 Rock gets shafted for best comedy, I'll boycott something. Not sure what, yet.

    They had better not leave the reality show host award for last.

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  91. HOLY BLEEPING BLEEP!

    Over on another part of the interwebs, I thought Twitter was going to explode from people reacting to that award.

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  92. God, this award could not be any more annoying. They were cutting people for this?

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  93. OK the reality show hosts were good for something at last. That sketch was hilarious.

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  94. They're rushing people through their speeches to make time for this crap?

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  95. I got a chuckle out of the fact that the best Kimmel could say of the hosts was "sufficient."

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  96. Probst got it because his was the first of the "reality shows". The bit was unnecessarily long and should not return next year.

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  97. I love MTM and Betty White, but get on with the show, people! I have a deadline to meet!

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  98. They only have 2 left, and 6 minutes for 11 PM--going to make it under the wire.

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  99. They had Mary Tyler Moore and Betty White waiting in the wings and they spent time on that reality host crap?

    Hooray 30 Rock.

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  100. At least they didn't screw up the big one.

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  101. Well, alright! The show was heinous for at least two hours, but this last hour mostly made up for that. Gotta write. Back around 11:30 or so.

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  102. Overall, I guess my reaction is mixed -- but they did get most of the major categories right. Next year, they should ditch hosts in general and give Michael Emerson a statue. Then I'd be happy.

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  103. Which show won for best drama....I missed it!

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  104. Unsurprising that Mad Men won. I don't get it, myself; I find it horribly overrated.

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  105. Martin Sheen thinks West Wing was non-partisan. How precious.

    Tommy Smothers is telling "jokes" left over from 1968, and whoever got cut off was regurgitating an SNL joke ... from 1988. (Can these award-winning professionals come up with some new material?)

    It's the same excrement - coming out different anal orifices. Does this show always have to be a left-wing cluster-shtupp? Just one year, couldn't they stick to honoring television and the people who work in it?

    There's more to free speech than spewing gratuitous insults whenever and wherever one feels like it. They think they're "speaking truth to power" when it's nothing more than adolescent tantrum. Sometimes it's about knowing when not to speak.

    Even Alec Baldwin had enough class to respect the occasion of the show.

    (I admit I was pleasantly surprised to hear Tina Fey celebrate tax cuts for "the rich.")

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  106. Have to say it's nice to see both Cranston and Ivanek get their first wins on the same night. Two actors who have done such good work for so many years, on so many shows.

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  107. Dave T, when right-wing writers start having creative talent, then maybe the Emmy's will celebrate conservatives.

    And sorry to burst your bubble, but Tina Fey was talking about NY tax cuts for movie and TV productions, not Bush's schemes.

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  108. Did The Wire get any recognition. I like Mad Men, but it is not close to the show The Wire was.

    And Dave T you should be happy with playin on the winning team. The rest of us have to suffer through 4 more years of neocon rule.

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  109. Guys, Emmy recap column is up at NJ.com, and we can move the discussion to the new post at the top of this page.

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  110. Dave T, when right-wing writers start having creative talent, then maybe the Emmy's will celebrate conservatives.

    Did I complain about liberals winning awards? (Answer: no, I did not.) The comment was about liberals spewing their silly politics non-stop. They just can't give it a rest. It's TEDIOUS.

    As for right-wing writers and their talent, I assume you've heard of "24."

    And sorry to burst your bubble, but Tina Fey was talking about NY tax cuts for movie and TV productions, not Bush's schemes.

    My bubble is fine, but thanks for your concern. I didn't mention Bush. Are you saying it's OK for a city to cut taxes for rich movie and TV producers, but not for the federal govt to cut taxes?

    The rest of us have to suffer through 4 more years of neocon rule

    I hope so. Actually, I'd prefer paleo-con.

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  111. Dave T wrote,

    "Did I complain about liberals winning awards? (Answer: no, I did not.) The comment was about liberals spewing their silly politics non-stop. They just can't give it a rest. It's TEDIOUS."

    I love comments like these because they seem to say that although we live a democracy, no one should dare have strong political opinions. If someone has strong political opinions, and soapbox to speak up, then they can. Hopefully most people are smart enough to realize Hollywood stars have no special knowledge, and ignore them.

    But to attack them for speaking their mind, is just being overly sensitive.

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  112. Dave T wrote,
    "My bubble is fine, but thanks for your concern. I didn't mention Bush. Are you saying it's OK for a city to cut taxes for rich movie and TV producers, but not for the federal govt to cut taxes?"

    We're saying Tina Fey was talking about cuts for movie and TV production, not movie and TV producers. It's the difference between a corporate tax cut on profits and an income tax cut on multibillionaire CEOs.

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  113. Hellish show, but at least 30 Rock was properly recognized and Mad Men took the big one.

    That host experiment was a spectacular faiure. It was so bad, it made me long for Seacrest in the round.

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  114. dave t - the same can be said for FOX news x100

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