Since everyone in the world including Patrice knew that she was going home from "Rock Star" tonight, the most interesting part of the elimination show wasn't the debut of Supernova's second song (though it was slightly catchier) or the presence of Toby in the bottom three only a few minutes after he sang with Supernova. It was Dilana, the clear front-runner from week one, taking a couple of image hits. (According to people in the taping, the bit about talking to reporters went on for more than a half-hour, with Dave and the band all savaging her.)
The honest to the point of rude side of Dilana isn't a surprise to me -- even back in week three, she was dogging all the male contestants to any reporter who asked -- but the double pile-0n was. Maybe the producers felt they had to do damage control after everyone said that her singing with the band last week made the rest of the season a waste of time, or maybe she really is getting on everybody's nerves and they need to start laying the groundwork for her eventual defeat.
I still think the final two comes down to Dilana vs. Lukas, but for argument's sake, let's look at the chances of each remaining contender after the jump...
THE FAVORITES: Dilana and Lukas
"Lithium" and "Zombie" established Dilana as the most original, compelling contestant this season, and she's looked pretty comfortable jamming with both Gilby and the entire band. Working against her are an apparently abrasive personality (though that didn't exactly hurt J.D. last season) and the fact that, as Magni pointed out in the Mansion segment, she's really plateaued. Feels like it's been a month since her last really memorable performance ("Time After Time"?).
And speaking of J.D., we have Lukas as this year's token homeless Canadian assclown, the polarizing figure whom you either love or despise. He definitely has the stage presence down, and he's shown on a few songs like "Creep" that he can really sing when he wants to. Plus, Tommy digs him and Jason seems to view him as a pet project. On the downside, his "Celebrity Skin" was by far the worst performance by any of the remaining contenders, and the producers may try to nudge Supernova away from picking him to avoid making this season feel like a rerun of year one.
THE SAFE CHOICE: Magni
He and Storm are the sanest, most professional people left, as well as the best pure singers. He's also a good guitar player (though not in the class of the guy from the House Band, who was amazing on "Fire" and has repeatedly outclassed Gilby by an order of 10). Plus, Newsted loves him. Pick him, and you don't have to worry about headaches on the road and in the studio -- or about being upstaged by a singer who's too charismatic or distinctive. But by the same token, he only occasionally comes off like a bonafide rock star ("Fire" being one of those rare occasions). If they're expecting the frontman or woman to actually draw in a significant audience, I don't know that he's the guy.
THE DARK HORSES: Ryan and Toby
I've been pretty clear about my boredom with Ryan, but the band doesn't seem to feel the same way. Of the three originals that have been performed so far, "Back of Your Car" sounded most like something Supernova might actually play. Toby, meanwhile, can sing, had nice on-stage chemistry with the band, and will arguably have the most female appeal of any of the remaining men. The fact that he was chosen second to play with the band suggests they're taking him more seriously than I have. (That, or, again, reaction to Dilana with them last week scared them and the producers into picking someone who obviously isn't going to win.)
ON THE SPOT: Storm
It pains me to say this, since she's my favorite, but if Storm is in the bottom three next week, I think she goes home. Again, she's a mature, talented pro -- and, judging by her interactions with Navarro and the band, she'd be a lot of fun to have on the road -- but she's only knocked one song out of the park ("Anything, Anything") and has spent every week since singing songs that aren't remotely the sort of thing this band is going to do. She has to absolutely kill it next time, and if they're only singing one song each on Viewer's Choice week (last year, I vaguely recall that everyone got to do two, one chosen by viewers, one an original), she could be in trouble, because two of the choices ("Changes," "We Are the Champions") are ballads, one ("Bring Me To Life") has been done, like, 12 times already this season, and the fourth ("Anything, Anything") is something she's already done twice. If a second song is on the table, she needs to fight, shove, bully, whatever to either do an original or play with someone in Supernova.
What does everybody else think? Are my rankings way off? If you were one of the three chuckleheads in Supernova and you had to make the choice right now, who would you pick?